Why do we hold onto our opinions? Why do we make decisions that in hindsight are completely ridiculous decisions?

It’s mostly because of cognitive biases. Cognitive biases are “mental shortcuts”, they are patterns that our brain has come to understand and so it uses them to process information faster. However, it may also lead to logical fallacies.

Let’s start with “Anchoring Bias“. Anchoring bias takes place when we only focus on the first piece of information that was given to us. This piece of information is known as the anchor. Let’s assume that you are going to buy a new house; the real estate agent first shows you all the higher-priced houses, which might make you worry that you won’t be able to afford a new house. Then the agent shows you more affordable houses. After seeing all the expensive houses these houses seem like a good bargain. In reality, these houses are overpriced. In this case, the expensive houses acted as an anchor and your subsequent judgments are influenced by the anchor.

Then we have the “Confirmation Bias“. The confirmation bias is the urge or tendency to favor our preexisting beliefs even when there is contradictory evidence. For example, let’s say my whole family and I are vegans. I am actively only going to search for information that favors veganism. When I come across articles about the benefits of consumption of meat, I will interpret them in a way that supports my existing beliefs. This bias makes it harder to make impartial decisions and see other perspectives.

“Availability Heuristic“. This is the event when we judge how likely it is for something to occur based on how fast examples come to our mind. For instance, after hearing about a plane crash people might overestimate the dangers of flying compared to driving. Availability heuristic warps our risk assessment.

“Overconfidence Bias“. Overconfidence bias is the tendency to overestimate our own abilities. For example, athletes often overestimate their own abilities and underestimate their opponents which leads to loss. Similar to this there is the “Gambler’s fallacy“. The gambler’s fallacy is the tendency to assume that just because something hasn’t happened yet, it won’t happen in the future.
“Loss Aversion“. Loss aversion is the tendency to regard losses more intensely than pleasures of equivalent gains. For example, investors often focus more on avoiding losses rather than making profits. This cognitive bias often leads to implausible financial decisions and indecision. Biases like this shape financial behaviors and markets.
“Hindsight Bias“. The hindsight bias, also known as the “knew-it-all” bias, is the tendency to believe that we knew a said event was going to occur after it has already occurred, even though it was completely unpredictable. This bias induces overconfidence, especially about future predictions. E.g. predicting the outcome of a match before it has ended.
“Halo Effect“. The halo effect is when the focus is only a single positive trait and a general impression of someone is formed using that one trait. Like, thinking a person is kind and charming just based on their looks.
“Social Proof” (aka “Herding“). This bias describes the tendency to determine how to behave or what decision to make in a particular situation by following what others in the same situation have done. For instance, a person is more likely to choose a crowded restaurant than an empty one because it seems more popular. While this bias can be helpful in some situations it may also lead to poor decisions and lack of individuality.
These are some examples from the huge list of cognitive biases. Cognitive biases are a natural part of our thoughts and behavioral patterns, however they should not be controlling our decisions. Understanding these biases and recognizing when we fall victim to these biases can help navigate situations with greater clarity.
References:-
https://cie-advances.asme.org/files-library-Documents/heuristics-and-biases-the-psychology-of-intuitive-judgment.pdf
https://www.khanacademy.org/science/learn-to-learn/x141050afa14cfed3:learn-to-learn/x141050afa14cfed3:cognitive-biases-growth-mindset/a/l2l-cognitive-biases-growth-mindset
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